COP28 Edges Towards a Historic Agreement The United Arab Emirates, hosts of COP28, are expressing a cautious yet hopeful stance as the conference approaches a critical juncture. Negotiators believe that a significant commitment to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the coming decades, possibly leading to their complete phase-out, is within reach. This development marks a stark departure from previous UN climate conferences, where fossil fuels were rarely discussed openly.
The Shift in Conversation at COP28 For years, fossil fuels remained a taboo topic at UN climate conferences. However, at COP26 in Glasgow, the first formal debate on their future led to a commitment to phase down coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels. The current discussions at COP28 signify an acknowledgment of the need to address the primary source of climate change more directly and comprehensively.
UAE’s Role in Steering the Change Hosting a climate conference in a petrostate like the UAE might seem ironic, but signs point towards meaningful progress in climate action. Sultan al-Jaber, COP28 president and head of UAE state oil company Adnoc, has been advocating for a phase-out of all fossil fuels in the final text of the conference. This stance from a leading oil nation signals a potential shift in global energy policies.
Global Dynamics and the Path to Agreement The global context is favorable for a fossil fuel phase-out agreement. Over 100 countries, including the US and the EU, support such an initiative, and recent dialogues suggest a softening stance from major players like China and Russia. Saudi Arabia’s response remains a significant hurdle, but there are indications of internal support for the move, aligning with its modernization agenda.
The Road Ahead – Balancing Interests and Climate Goals The potential agreement at COP28 is not without its complexities. While it is unlikely to set a definitive expiry date for fossil fuels, the focus will be on abated usage, where emissions are captured to mitigate climate impact. The UAE’s proactive role in these discussions reflects an understanding of the need to transition from unabated fossil fuels, positioning itself on the right side of history while acknowledging its ongoing oil production increase.
