The Troubling Pattern of Russia’s Actions
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the country has experienced immense suffering. The death toll has reached tens of thousands, and a quarter of the population has been displaced. Entire cities have been reduced to rubble. As calls for negotiations with Russia grow, it is crucial to consider the troubling pattern in Russia’s history.
Russia’s Repeated Betrayal
Russia’s track record of lying and breaking international agreements raises doubts about negotiating with the country. In 1994, Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the Budapest Memorandum. However, in 2014, it illegally annexed Crimea, betraying this agreement. Similarly, Russia armed and supported separatists in Georgia and Moldova, disregarding agreements to maintain the territorial integrity of these countries.
Broken Trust
Russia’s history of disregarding agreements extends beyond its immediate neighbors. The country has consistently broken nuclear treaties with the United States, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty and the New START treaty. Its interference in elections in countries like the United States, France, and Ukraine has been well-documented. Russia has even attempted coups in Montenegro and Moldova, demonstrating a complete lack of respect for the sovereignty of other nations.
A Pattern of Lies
Russia’s audacious assassinations of political opponents on foreign soil further exemplify its disregard for international norms. The poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko and Sergei Skripal, both carried out by Russian agents, are clear examples of Russia’s willingness to break boundaries. Throughout these incidents, Russia has consistently denied any involvement, following a policy of “deny everything and admit nothing.”
Negotiating with Russia: A Futile Endeavor
Given Russia’s history of broken promises, negotiating with the country seems futile. Trust is a crucial element of any negotiation, but Russia has demolished any grounds for trust. Its actions have shown a disregard for neighboring countries, the United States, and democratic principles. As Ukraine considers its options, it must carefully weigh the realities of negotiating with a country that has consistently betrayed agreements.
Anastassia Fedyk, Assistant Professor of Finance at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley
Tatyana Deryugina, Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Emilia Marshall, Research Fellow with Economists for Ukraine
